"Always be yourself; Unless you can be Quade Cooper, then always be Quade Cooper"

Like those kind of annoying RFU updates on Twitter keep telling us, we are one day away from the start of the second best month of the international rugby calendar (call me a puritan, but you really can't beat the 6 Nations).

Hasn't it all been coming together nicely? Mike Phillips is cast as the wayward soul looking for a shot at redemption. The Australians have staged a bloodless coup, installing impressive but raw Ben Mowen as Captain and elevating Quade Cooper from Court Jester to Vice Captain in a move that pretty much is the dictionary definition of Risk/Reward Calculation. Even New Zealand have been drawn (indirectly) into the emergent soap opera, publicly admitting that they still love Sonny Bill and want him back even though he isn't breaking up with his new girlfriend like he promised them he would.

But never mind the petty dramas of other nations, what of England? Who are the players to watch and who will play well? Well, those sound like some excellent questions - let's look at them in depth!



How Will We Do?

Much like loveable indie scamps The Cribs, I'm a Realist. Which leaves me worryingly aligned with the big man in declaring 2 out of 3 ain't bad... I'm in no position to throw out an outrageous claim about the results because, well, I don't think there will be one.

Against an Australia team that has been frankly abysmal for the largest parts of the last 12 months, I would hope, and expect England to win in what always appears to be a close match. It's a simplistic view, but simplicity wins matches - England should have the set piece platform necessary to dominate possession, giving a backline with plenty of incision all the field position necessary to do the damage.

But write off Australia at your peril. Whilst they are not close to the Aussie teams of 10 years ago, Ewen McKenzie is quietly and systematically restoring order to the Lord of the Flies scenario he walked into. Just ask James O'Connor.

He has dropped James Horwill as captain, and he would have dropped him from the XV if Rob Simmons was fit, citing correctly his loss of form. This could backfire for another coach, and still might for McKenzie, but he has coached Horwill for years with the Reds and will have managed the situation correctly. McKenzie also 'gets' Quade Cooper, and given the right support, the right game plan and put into the right frame of mind, I maintain he is in the top 3 Fly Halves in world rugby.

The retention of Brumbies Fly Half Matt Toomua at 12 is a wily one as well. He is an exceptional defender and defensive organiser, whose presence could go a long way to neutralising the England game plan of exploiting an Aussie defence forced on to the back foot. That said, I will be disappointed if England do not come away with the win.

My Prediction: Eng 24 - 19 Aus

Whilst I have a personal soft spot for Argentina, and they will of course present their ubiquitous brand of physicality, they are in some disarray, with a brand new coach and a team that quite honestly, whilst sprinkled with stars does not have the depth of quality from 1-23 to present a genuine challenge outside of Argentina. The way the IRB/SANZAR is treating Argentine rugby annoys me for a range of reasons, something I want to look at in more depth in the future.

My Prediction is as predictable as it is vague: England by 10+.

Then comes New Zealand. Whilst everything in me yearns for us to win and to party like it is 2012 and it obviously remains a possibility, I refer you back to my earlier Cribs assertion. That result was held up as a shock result for a reason.

This New Zealand team is simply the best on field team I have seen in my lifetime, coached by the best off field team I can recall, managed, logisticised and strategised by a national union who should be cloned, copied and exported around the rugby playing world. They have the worlds best teams in 15 a side (in both sexes), 7s, the Super Rugby champion franchise and even the quality of the ITM Cup is a step above the vast majority you will see in other domestic competitions.

New Zealand have essentially completed rugby in the same way that Lionel Messi has completed football and produced this dominance from a population base half the size of London. Scary.

Focusing for a second on the on field side of things, it is hard to find a single aspect of the game that New Zealand are not superior to England in. This is not to say that England are far away, and in fact in certain aspects you can even argue parity. But you win a rugby match by finding the area you are superior to the opposition and exploiting it until it provides sufficient pressure to create a tipping point. New Zealand have at times in games found themselves overmatched in a certain aspect; but what they are the masters of, to borrow a phrase from NFL, is bending but not breaking.

My prediction: Eng 14-32 New Zealand.

Who To Watch?

There are a couple of players I will be keeping a keen eye on to see how they get on this month, for reasons both good and bad:

Billy '36' Twelvetrees



I am pleased that 36, proud possessor of the best nickname in world rugby, is getting the start at Inside Centre.  Whether he would have got a start if Brad Barrit had been fit is a debate for another day, and at this point is largely moot.  Twelvetrees, who has played at 10 in the Premiership before, is a far superior distributer to Barrit, and at 6 foot 3 and 100kg is a genuine crash option at the same time should the occasion demand it.  He is also the possessor of a howitzer right boot, giving England valuable kicking options at 9/10/12, as well as a long range penalty kicker, a good foil to Farrell's impressive accuracy but limited range.

But it is his vision and skill as a distributer that is most exciting, especially when you consider the personnel he could unleash; Tomkins, Yarde and even Ashton all promise to get fat off the feast that 36 could serve up for them.

Courtney Lawes

Geoff Parling may be concussed, but the smart money was on the fact that Lawes would have displaced one of the two second rows even if everyone was fit.  Northampton are in terrific domestic form, and Lawes' emergence has been one of the key components of this.  As destructive as ever without the ball, he has gone away and heeded the advice that he needs to 'defend clever' in order to become more scalpel and less sledgehammer.  The big hits are still there, just ask Tom Habberfield (1:08 in!), but Lawes is noticibly less Kamikaze in his defensive approach, which is allowing him to improve in his all round game - always good in the lineout, he is also now turning into the open play runner you imagine his physique caters for, an aspect that the presence of Samu Manoa has probably helped with.

As good as Parling has been, Lawes and Launchbury are the future in England's engine room and I hope that this is recognised moving forwards.

 

 

Chris Ashton

I get it, Chris Ashton is not a bad winger, and I will accept that he is a genuine threat when running support lines off the shoulder of the ball carrier, but frankly, that is what the back row are for.  I have lobbied for some time now to move on from the Ashton experiment.  His defence, especially for a player grounded in Rugby League is not impressive, and he offers no kicking option so crucial in back three play in the modern game.  That would be negated if he was a terrifying counter attacker, a la Wade/Foden/Yarde, but the fact of the matter is that with the ball in his hands and a defence in front of him, Ashton scares no one at international level.

People will point to his domestic form and try scoring record for England - but his tries were scored early, and seemed to dry up once he was not a surprise element any more appearing of Toby Flood's shoulder.  To my mind he is the rugby equivalent of Rob Key - terrific at the highest domestic level, but not quite good enough for the international game.  He will need three big performances to keep his place moving in to the 6 nations.  I suspect that in actuality Ashton will find his seat the hottest in the starting XV and could struggle to see then end of the Autumn series given the next cabs off the rank are both numerous and in good form.

And Finally...

Dear the RFU,

We get it, Sky Sports give you a lot of money.  But rugby players of all standards, as well as volunteers, coaches and administrators, who you would probably identify as your core audience play rugby for their hundreds of clubs on a Saturday afternoon across the country.  WHY WOULD YOU HAVE ALL THREE OF THE ENGLAND GAMES KICK OFF AT 2.30 ON A STURDAY AFTERNOON?!

You utter gits.

 



A New Home for a Wayward Wallaby?



O'Connor: looking for a new club.
Or a recruiting boy band.

The emergence that James O'Connor's discussions with the Western Force have broken down has ended any remaining possibility that rugby's least edgy 'bad boy' would remain in Australia for the coming season to fight for his place. 

O'Connor has stated that he is in final discussions with 'several European clubs' about a short term contract in an attempt to resurrect his career.  With no insider knowledge whatsoever, I thought it might be fun to propose a couple of best-fit clubs for O'Connor:

Leicester Tigers

O'Connor would fit right in to the East Midlands, and could form a devastating centre partnership with Manu Tuilagi.  Like O'Connor, who was so scared of flying he turned up to an airport smashed Tuilagi also gets nervous about the thought of taking mass transport, famously getting so anxious about a ferry ride at the 2011 World Cup he had to prematurely abandon ship. 

On a slightly more serious note, Leicester have form for reigning in more 'individual' personalities and getting the best out of them on the pitch - Fellow former Wallaby Lote Tiqiri could vouch for that.

Leicester's famously good Curry scene could also offer O'Connor the opportunity to indulge his other passion - late night takeway runs.

Sale Sharks

Alternatively James could look a bit further North and land with the Sharks, who historically are not scared to offer big money signings ample opportunity to explode in their faces.

Manchester offers a vibrant night life that would obviously appeal to a man of O'Connor's nocturnal persuasions.  The Shark's trump card could however be offering him the opportunity to step onto the field with Danny Cipriani and further the Backline/Boy Band hybrid that the O'Connor, Beale, Cooper et all have been working so hard on down under in recent years.

Leinster

Ahh, Dublin.  The home of the world famous Guinness brewery... On Second thoughts, maybe Ireland might not be the best fit for O'Connor.

But, for a man who professes to be coming to Europe in order to resurrect his career and show the ARU what they're missing, he could do worse than looking at joining a team who compete in the Heineken most years.  They also play in the Rabo - if he can't look good against Zebre and the Dragons, then he really is in trouble.

The final incentive would be the opportunity to talk at length with Brian O'Driscoll about their negative experiences of the recent Lions tour.

Newcastle Falcons

If he gets a chance to have a word with Retired Wallaby legend Matt Burke, O'Connor could wind his way to the northernmost outpost of the Aviva Premiership - Burke thrived here after he left the southern hemisphere.  A chance to get back to playing week in, week out rugby under the watchful eye of noted disciplinarian and cynical cheat Dean Richards could be just what the doctor ordered.

The kicker to this deal could be the opportunity for a walk on part on Geordie Shore - the preening, drunken, orange idiots would help remind him of his Aussie team mates and assuage any feelings of home sickness.



Lets be right though, he's obviously going to go and count his Euros in France.  He's far too young to tempt Toulon, so my money is on Toulouse or Montpellier - I reckon he'll want to cling to the sunshine.  Watch this space.  

New Rugby Podcast

Well I couldn't manage it, but some others out there have also decided that there is a need to create a decent Rugby Podcast, and by God they've only bloody gone and done it!

Check out the Egg Chasers Podcast - it's relatively new (Episode 6 this week) and takes a good humoured, fans - eye view of some main talking points from around the game.

you can find them on Twitter @rugbypodcast and they've also got their own website, www.eggchasers.com where you'll find all the information you will need to download and give it a listen.

Enjoy!

Odd Shaped Balls 2.0

Well hello there,

Welcome to OSB 2.0 - 'The Reboot'.  As you may well be aware a little while back I came up with the idea of starting a rugby podcast, an idea borne of good intentions and a frustration at the lack of any good ones existing.  It quickly became apparent that for a variety of reasons (chief amongst them being my absolute lack of knowledge on the subject of audio production) that a podcast was never really going to work.

In the interim whilst I still tinkered away and deluded myself that I could somehow magic a podcast out of thin air I created the Odd Shaped Balls Blog, almost as an afterthought in order to channel some of that excess of Rugby passion I so wanted to share.  Once again, after setting off at good pace, knocking out some articles, including 5/12 of a Premiership team by team review and some bits and bobs on the Lions tour, reality kicked in and having to pretend to do work to earn a living annoyingly ate in to my post writing time, leading to a lull in production.

Well now, my promise to you is this: My days of pretending to work are over - and now, completely focused on blogging rather than Podcast pipe dreams, I present to you the (not in any way) new, (not particularly) improved Odd Shaped Balls Podcast!

for more instant debate/opinion, we are of course on Facebook at www.facebook.com/OSBblog and on Twitter you will find us at www.twitter.com/OSBblog - get involved and let me know what you think we, as rugby lovers, should be talking about and for my end of the bargain, whenever I can, I will bang out my best possible attempt at a well written, interesting article over here on the blog!

I, for one, am very aroused...

Aviva Prem End Of Season Reports: London Wasps

The Lions tour may be in full flow, but the I had started my end of term reports for the 2012/13 Aviva Premiership season, and I shall attempt to get them out in the brief lulls between bouts of Antipodean warfare being waged on the other side of the world. You know the format by now, I take a look at how each team has fared, whilst running the well-trodden 'School Report' thread through it. 

I'll look at each team in reverse finishing order, looking at what went well, what didn't, stand out players and areas for improvement for the coming season:

London Wasps

Final Position: 8th
P: 22	W: 9	L: 13	D: 0	F: 511	A: 528	Pts: 48

(For the record, I am a Wasps fan, but I shall try and remain objective!)

Plus Marks:

Wasps are really the first of the teams who can start to think that they ended the 2012/13 season in credit.  An 8th place finish sounds low in the context of a 12 team league, but they were 13 points above the 9th placed team and were in the picture for a Heineken spot for the majority of the season.  Considering the desperate struggle to avoid relegation in the 2011/12 season, this has to be a positive.

 

Wasps have played some devastatingly expansive and incisive rugby with the ball in hand this season, and set their stall out for this in the most public way possible when Christian Wade stood up George Lowe in the London Double Header at Twickenham. When they have managed to secure possession (more on this later) they have unleashed what must feel like hell on opposition defences following a surprisingly simple formula - softening first with the sledgehammers of Masi, Bell and Southwell before unleashing the guile and genuinely terrifying pace of Wade, Varndell and Daly.  Simple though the formula is, the right balance is surprisingly hard to stumble upon - indeed most teams seem happy to spend 75 minutes on the former before going to the latter!  A lot of credit must go to attack coach Shane Howarth for his work here.  They come in 5th in the table for tries scored, and by way of context, scored 6 more than table toppers South Saracens.

 

Upfront, it has been more of a mixed bag, but the emergence of the Likes of Joe Launchbury, Sam Jones and Billy Vunipola has been undoubtedly a plus point.

 

The takeover by Derek Richardson in April has, for now, resolved the speculation about the future of the club.

 

Detentions:

As incisive and clinical as they have been in attack, Wasps have at times looked like they are being managed by Kevin Keegan when it comes to defence, very much subscribing to the "you score 50, we'll score 51" philosophy.  Some of their defence, both as a scheme and personal level this year has been woeful.  Some of the tries scored by Leinster in their Amlin QF matchup best demonstrates this I think - the positioning seems to be shoddy, and some of the 1:1 tackling would shame a schoolboy much less a professional player.

 

They have also not had a competitive enough forward pack, too often getting bullied out of games and having a creaky set piece all year.  This seems to be the statement of a madman when you consider personnel: Palmer, Wentzel, Launchbury, Tualafo, Payne, Vunipola, Johnson and Haskell do not read like names you could ever accuse of being bullied, but this has been the case. 

 

Tom Lindsay is developing well at hooker, looking promising in broken play, but his lineout in particular considering the targets he has had at his disposal has been awful and needs shoring up quickly if he is to progress. 

 

Whilst I have lauded Shane Howarth's work with the backline, the forward pack needs to be looked at along with the defence and I would hope Wasps look hard at who the right people are to do this.

 

My final point in the negative column is letting Shane Howarth leave the club for Worcester - have you not just been reading what I have written about him?!

 

Head Boy:

This one was obvious, and not even a close race (not many races with Christian Wade in are).  Honourable mentions go to fellow try monster Tom Varndell and England player of the year Joe Launchbury, but Christian Wade has had a season that honestly deserves the adjective sensational. 

He shredded Quins at Twickenham with two tries (not to mention the one he gave to Varndell after he was over the line) to kick the season off and has continued in the same vain therafter, topping the try scoring charts with 13 tries (He and Varndell between them scored 4 less tries than London Welsh managed in total). 

So persistent has been his brilliance, that even the ever present niggles about his size and defensive credentials have been silenced (for the record, whilst he is not Alesana Tuilagi, he is a lot better than some will imply, I find it a bit of a lazy criticism). 

Inevitable comparisons to the likes of Jason Robinson and Shane Williams have been made, and his stock has risen first with England caps following his non cap appearance against the Barbarians last year, and then his late call into the Lions squad.  Is it baffling why he was called in? Yes, but as a pointer to how high his stock is rising in the game it is very useful. 

I am probably, hopefully not alone in thinking that Wade is looking set to become a fixture in the England team in the coming years. Sorry Chris Ashton, but wingers who don't score tries fall quickly into the chocolate teapot category...

 

Predicted Grades Next Year:

This is a genuinely hard call to make, and a lot depends on what happens and who arrives this close season.  The defence and forward pack need to improve, drastically.  This is easily done, the players are in place, with perhaps a couple of gnarly front row additions, there just needs the right input to them.
Some important players have left, Billy Vunipola to Saracens (who are seemingly unburdened by any salary cap options) perhaps the most notable of the lot, but Wentzel will be missed and Zak Tualafo, off to the money at Stade Francais, has been probably their best scrummager.
There has also been some movement at fly half, with Nick Robinson off to Bristol and Stephen Jones finally deciding to hang his boots up.  This has led to a double snatch from Worcester that I like A LOT - Andy Goode will hopefully provide the wise old head, game management and metronomic boot in the short term and Joe Carlisle a Worcester academy product shows tremendous promise in the longer term.
Dai Young is not one to stand around, as this season has proven, and I would think that again Wasps will be making a serious challenge for the Heineken cup places next season.

JUST SORT THE DEFENCE OUT!

Lions/Australia name their teams; 1st Test Preview

So, like Christmas Eve (well, technically Dec. 23rd I suppose), the anticipation is building to a crescendo, the auditions of varying quality are done and the 1st Test is upon us this Saturday Morning.  Australia and The Lions have named their teams and as expected with a Lions team, as well as an Australia team in a bit of flux, there are a few interesting selections. The two teams line up like this:

Alex Corbisiero	1	Benn Robinson (Waratahs)
Tom Youngs	2	Stephen Moore (Brumbies)
Adam Jones	3	Ben Alexander (Brumbies)
Alun–Wyn Jones	4	Kane Douglas (Waratahs)
Paul O’Connell	5	James Horwill (Reds)(c)
Tom Croft	6	Ben Mowen (Brumbies)
Sam Warburton   (c)	7	Michael Hooper (Waratahs)
Jamie Heaslip	8	Wycliff Palu (Waratahs)
Mike Phillips	9	Will Genia (Reds)
Jonny Sexton	10	James O’Conner (Rebels)
George North	11	Digby Ioane (Reds)
Jonathan Davies	12	Cristian Leali’ifano (Brumbies)
Brian O’Driscroll	13	Adam Ashley-Cooper (Waratahs)
Alex Cuthbert	14	Issy Folau (Waratahs)
Leigh Halfpenny	15	Berrick Barnes (Waratahs)
Richard Hibbard	16	Saia Fainga’a (Reds)
Mako Vunipola	17	James Slipper (Reds)
Dan Cole	18	Sekope Kepu (Waratahs)
Geoff Parling	19	Rob Simmons (Reds)
Dan Lydiate	20	Liam Gill (Reds)
Ben Youngs	21	Nick Phipps (Rebels)
Owen Farrell	22	Pat McCabe (Brumbies)
Sean Maitland	23	Kurtley Beale (Rebels)

Lions - Set Piece Panic?

The first two surprise selections come in the front row, with Alex Corbisiero becoming the traditional 'bolter' ahead of the generally impressive Mako Vunipola and also the inclusion of Tom Youngs at Hooker, which is just the latest step in the converted centre's meteoric rise to his current position as being named the best Hooker in the British Isles. 

These selections have a slight whiff of a kneejerk reaction following the woes at the set piece in the last few games.  But why?  Corbisiero is admittedly a better scrummager,  but Vunipola is no slouch in that department , he offers a lot more in his all round game and will feel rightly disappointed.  I would understand this selection if this Lions tour was against South Africa or even New Zealand - but against this Australian team, more specifically against this Australian pack, I feel that this selection takes away more than it offers to the team. 

Youngs, whilst a developing talent (and I personally have all the time in the world for former backs converting to hooker!), will admit himself that probably the side of his conversion that needs the most work is his lineout accuracy, yet Hibbard, clearly the most accurate chucker on the tour is suffering the ill effects from a bad day at the office too close to the tests.  Youngs' inclusion is a big gamble, with the lineout being so important to the Lions' possession based, sledgehammer backline selection.  with Horwill and Mowen in particular lurking to pick off anything that isn't bang on the money, it could be a long day at the office for the Leicester Tyro. Tom Croft getting the blindside nod and Geoff Parling making the bench ahead of Richie Grey offers further suggestion of Gatland's lineout worries.

At What Price A Captain?

Although there was some conjecture about his selection I think we all knew there was no way in Hell that Sam Warburton would not be starting the test matches as tour captain.  his inclusion, with Tom Croft's superior lineout presence giving him the 6 jersey, and Gatland's mancrush Dan Lydiate getting the bench spot means that Sean O'Brien and Justin Tipuric can be very rightfully disappointed in the selection that reflects not at all on their form and ability.

I have madebno secret of the fact that I just don't 'get' Warburton, I can't put my finger on it specifically but I find him to be generally over rated as a player and there's some good stats out there to back it up, however good a leader he is.  This is a Lions tour at the end of the day, not a an emerging Wales team and in the team named any of  PO'C, BO'D, Alun-Wyn Jones or even Heaslip could have captained without any negative impact, so that argument for his selection just doesn't fly for me.

As for Croft, I have long maintained that whilst I really like him as a player, I find him to be a luxury selection - you need the rest of the pack, as it is at Leicester to be made up with the right blend of fetchers, enforcers and hard yard earners to allow him to hang out in the tram lines and be a lineout specialist.  I'd love him so so much more if he was a second row! But I have already said that I think he has been selected as a lineout safety blanket.

These issues aside, I'm generally happy with the rest of the selection - Faletau will be upset, but Heaslip is no shoddy option.  Maitland making the bench is a weird one for me - some have said this is political as you can't name a Lions squad without a Jock in it, but this argument is irrelevant, even if it is true - how does Maitland get the nod ahead of Hogg?!  The likes of Vunipola, Youngs and Cole coming off the bench at 60 minutes could well swing a close match.

Australia - In O'Conner We Trust?

The Aussies in comparison have selected largely the pack that was expected.  I am pleased to see Ben Mowen's superb domestic form rewarded with a start, even if it is at the expense of the injured Higginbotham.   Losing Totafu to a broken arm is a blow, but Hooker is one of the positions where the Aussies have some good depth - Moore and Fainga'a both are test quality players.
The Aussie gambles for me lie in the backline.  I have no qualms about Leali'ifano at 12, he has impressed me all year and will offer the second distibuter the Lions don't have at 12, alongside a solid kicking game and he does not shy away from physical contact with or without the ball.  But a debut is a debut, and debuts don't come more pressured than against the Lions with an inexperienced 10 inside you.  James O'Conner at 10 is my real worry - I rate him as a back three player, and he flashes some quality at 10 for the Rebels, but he just doesn't look quite right in the position.  He's not a natural 10.  In fact, if I was Robbie Deans I would have switched Berrick Barnes and O'Conner around, Barnes' better game control and positional kicking could be just the tool that the Aussies need to pile the pressure on to the Lions' lineout.  In fact if I was Deans I would have been playing Quade, but that's a different matter entirely. 

The other talking point, and Gatland has already talked about the Lions focusing in on it is the selection of Issy Folau on the right wing.  I've mentioned before on this blog that I find him to be outrageously talented, but he is only 17 games old as a Rugby Union player, and 16.5 of those games have been at fullback.  Nobody is doubting his physical assets, he tackles well, but I'm led to believe there is actually some skill to defending as a winger and he could stand to get exposed.  I bet he doesn't though...

With all of these things considered, I think it is actually the boke that no-one is talking about who becomes crucial; Adam Ashley-Cooper at 13  has the consistency, the experience and the communication to help the Aussies ride out any problems, either inside or outside him.


All in all, seeing the selections and writing this article has just gotten me even more excited about a match I feel like I've been waiting 10 years for!  Roll on Saturday!!!